Basildon
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (9/14 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 18Proj: 3-15
Conservative
Now: 13Proj: 1-12
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 35+35
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
38.9%
Labour
18.1%
Conservative
16.0%
Green
10.9%
Lib Dem
8.8%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge