Barnsley
Metropolitan Borough· Yorkshire and The Humber· All seats up· 63 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Traditional Labour stronghold where Reform (40 seats) is projected to overtake Labour (11) for the first time. Labour held 58 of 63 seats going in.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 48Proj: 2-46
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Lib Dem
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 53+53
Green
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Other/Ind
Now: 3Proj: 2-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
41.6%
Labour
19.9%
Conservative
10.5%
Green
10.3%
Lib Dem
10.2%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge