UK Election Forecaster

If the Election Were Held Today

Updated 1 hour ago

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
272
−139 vs 2024
158384
Reform
155
+150 vs 2024
41291
Con
84
−37 vs 2024
19176
Lib Dem
74
+2 vs 2024
5287
SNP
17
+8 vs 2024
043
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
214
Green
9
+5 vs 2024
518

Reform is very likely the largest party (~22%); the contest is whether it reaches an overall majority.

Lab 272
Reform 155
Con 84
Lib Dem 74
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

Loading…

Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 456
Reform 5
Con 108
Lib Dem 52
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 246
Reform 183
Con 79
Lib Dem 78
Green 8
SNP 25
Lab -210Reform +178Con -29Lib Dem +26Green +4SNP +25
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 281
Reform 53
Con 181
Lib Dem 74
Green 6
SNP 23
Lab +35Reform -130Con +102Lib Dem -4Green -2SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 267
Reform 156
Con 75
Lib Dem 78
Green 7
SNP 23
Lab -14Reform +103Con -106Lib Dem +4Green +1

Polling Tracker

2012polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
27
14
28
20
London· 75
52
6
11
North West· 73
40
20
East of England· 61
23
20
7
10
South West· 58
20
5
23
8
Scotland· 57
23
6
5
23
West Midlands· 57
16
27
6
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
21
21
6
East Midlands· 47
16
26
4
Wales· 32
19
6
6
North East· 27
10
15
2

Latest Polls

2012 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
4 Sept
Opinium
2003
28
24
18
11
11
2 Sept
Find Out Now
2280
26
21
20
10
14
1 Sept
Lord Ashcroft Polls
5063
28
20
21
8
14
1 Sept
YouGov
2244
23
23
20
12
13
31 Aug
YouGov
2244
23
23
20
12
13

Model updates

8 Sept, 11:19
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2012 polls processed.
8 Sept, 04:36
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2012 polls processed.
7 Sept, 21:31
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2012 polls processed.
7 Sept, 12:32
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2012 polls processed.
7 Sept, 10:10
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2012 polls processed.