readingsignal

If the UK Election Were Held Today

Updated 4 hours ago·Lab-4vs yesterday

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
319
−92 vs 2024
214413
Con
110
−11 vs 2024
35201
Reform
95
+90 vs 2024
15217
Lib Dem
69
−3 vs 2024
4383
SNP
13
+4 vs 2024
035
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
513
Green
6
+2 vs 2024
49

Labour is very likely the largest party (95%). A hung parliament is the most likely result (51%).

Lab 319
Con 110
Reform 95
Lib Dem 69
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →
Also on this siteFrance 2027By-electionsTrack record

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 463
Reform 4
Con 108
Lib Dem 48
Green 3
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 318
Reform 88
Con 114
Lib Dem 73
Green 6
SNP 21
Lab -145Reform +84Con +6Lib Dem +25Green +3SNP +21
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 319
Reform 20
Con 186
Lib Dem 71
Green 5
SNP 19
Lab +1Reform -68Con +72Lib Dem -2Green -1SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 333
Reform 70
Con 110
Lib Dem 73
Green 5
SNP 18
Lab +14Reform +50Con -76Lib Dem +2SNP -1

Polling Tracker

2059polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
31
7
25
26
London· 75
53
6
11
North West· 73
53
6
5
East of England· 61
25
9
7
19
South West· 58
23
22
11
Scotland· 57
28
6
5
18
West Midlands· 57
26
15
10
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
27
14
8
East Midlands· 47
25
10
11
Wales· 32
22
5
North East· 27
20
5
2

Latest Polls

2059 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Con
Ref
LD
Grn
23 Oct
Opinium
2050
30
20
22
9
10
22 Oct
Ipsos
1100
32
24
20
9
8
22 Oct
Find Out Now
2381
26
21
20
9
13
19 Oct
More in Common
3069
28
23
22
10
8
19 Oct
Deltapoll
2092
30
22
24
7
8

Model updates

27 Oct, 05:05
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2059 polls processed.
26 Oct, 22:40
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2059 polls processed.
26 Oct, 13:04
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2059 polls processed.
26 Oct, 04:48
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2059 polls processed.
25 Oct, 20:51
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2059 polls processed.