readingsignal

If the UK Election Were Held Today

Updated 51 min ago

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
283
−128 vs 2024
166391
Reform
147
+142 vs 2024
30275
Con
80
−41 vs 2024
17165
Lib Dem
76
+4 vs 2024
5989
SNP
17
+8 vs 2024
043
Ind
12
+6 vs 2024
714
Green
7
+3 vs 2024
412

Labour is likely the largest party (82%). A hung parliament is the most likely result (69%).

Lab 283
Reform 147
Con 80
Lib Dem 76
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →
Also on this siteFrance 2027By-electionsTrack record

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 460
Reform 5
Con 102
Lib Dem 54
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 263
Reform 170
Con 75
Lib Dem 78
Green 7
SNP 25
Lab -197Reform +165Con -27Lib Dem +24Green +3SNP +25
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 301
Reform 39
Con 177
Lib Dem 73
Green 6
SNP 23
Lab +38Reform -131Con +102Lib Dem -5Green -1SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 284
Reform 143
Con 73
Lib Dem 78
Green 7
SNP 21
Lab -17Reform +104Con -104Lib Dem +5Green +1SNP -2

Polling Tracker

2039polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
29
13
28
19
London· 75
53
6
11
North West· 73
42
18
East of England· 61
23
20
7
10
South West· 58
21
5
23
7
Scotland· 57
25
6
5
21
West Midlands· 57
19
24
6
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
23
19
6
East Midlands· 47
17
25
4
Wales· 32
20
5
6
North East· 27
12
13
2

Latest Polls

2039 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
30 Sept
Find Out Now
2607
27
23
17
9
12
29 Sept
More in Common
2041
27
21
22
11
9
29 Sept
Survation
1548
29
23
19
9
9
28 Sept
YouGov
2310
24
25
19
12
11
25 Sept
Opinium
2050
28
24
17
10
10

Model updates

2 Oct, 12:35
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2039 polls processed.
2 Oct, 05:37
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2039 polls processed.
1 Oct, 22:41
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2039 polls processed.
1 Oct, 19:02
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2039 polls processed.
1 Oct, 13:15
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2038 polls processed.