UK Election Forecaster

The Forecast

Updated 4 hours ago·Reform-1vs yesterday
Reform
213
+208 vs 2024
95339
Lab
130
−281 vs 2024
70193
Con
123
+2 vs 2024
40208
Lib Dem
93
+21 vs 2024
82108
SNP
40
+31 vs 2024
3146
Green
16
+12 vs 2024
832
Ind
7
+1 vs 2024
59
Reform 213
Lab 130
Con 123
Lib Dem 93
SNP 40
326 majority

Local elections — May 7

Three scenarios
Explore scenarios →
73
councils changing control
83
projected NOC
40
Labour holds
19%
avg Reform vote share

136 English councils · Mild / Central / Severe scenarios · Interactive sliders

Scottish Parliament — May 7

See Scottish forecast →
100%
SNP largest party
50–68
SNP seat range
8–26
Labour seat range
13
Reform seats projected

73 constituency MSPs + 56 regional list = 129 total · Mixed-member proportional

Senedd — May 7

See Senedd forecast →
69%
Plaid largest party
5–25
Labour seat range
35
Plaid seats projected
30
Reform seats projected

Expanded 96-seat Senedd · 16 six-member constituencies · Closed-list PR

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 414
Reform 16
Con 131
Lib Dem 60
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 75
Reform 347
Con 35
Lib Dem 86
Green 28
SNP 46
Lab -339Reform +331Con -96Lib Dem +26Green +24SNP +46
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 111
Reform 236
Con 121
Lib Dem 90
Green 13
SNP 45
Lab +36Reform -111Con +86Lib Dem +4Green -15SNP -1
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 127
Reform 222
Con 120
Lib Dem 92
Green 13
SNP 41
Lab +16Reform -14Con -1Lib Dem +2SNP -4

Polling Tracker

561polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
18
13
31
27
London· 75
45
8
19
North West· 73
13
49
East of England· 61
13
14
10
23
South West· 58
13
4
27
11
Scotland· 57
6
7
41
West Midlands· 57
8
33
9
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
6
34
6
4
East Midlands· 47
6
32
9
Wales· 32
18
3
7
North East· 27
24
3

Latest Polls

561 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Ref
Lab
Con
LD
Grn
11 Jun
Find Out Now
2113
25
16
18
13
17
9 Jun
More in Common
2087
30
20
20
12
11
8 Jun
YouGov
2267
25
19
19
12
14
7 Jun
Good Growth Foundation
4000
27
20
19
12
13
5 Jun
Opinium
2050
29
20
17
11
14

Model updates

11 Jun, 20:35
v2.4-reconciled — 561 polls processed.
11 Jun, 16:20
v2.4-reconciled — 559 polls processed.
11 Jun, 10:57
v2.4-reconciled — 559 polls processed.
11 Jun, 04:58
v2.4-reconciled — 559 polls processed.
10 Jun, 20:45
v2.4-reconciled — 559 polls processed.