UK Election Forecaster

If the Election Were Held Today

Updated 5 hours ago

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Reform
264
+259 vs 2024
136369
Lab
117
−294 vs 2024
40214
Lib Dem
82
+10 vs 2024
65102
Con
79
−42 vs 2024
18171
Green
39
+35 vs 2024
1367
SNP
27
+18 vs 2024
049
Ind
12
+6 vs 2024
616

Reform is very likely the largest party (~87%); the contest is whether it reaches an overall majority.

Reform 264
Lab 117
Lib Dem 82
Con 79
Green 39
SNP 27
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

Loading…

Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 417
Reform 11
Con 135
Lib Dem 58
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 89
Reform 306
Con 68
Lib Dem 81
Green 27
SNP 45
Lab -328Reform +295Con -67Lib Dem +23Green +23SNP +45
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 118
Reform 169
Con 191
Lib Dem 81
Green 12
SNP 44
Lab +29Reform -137Con +123Green -15SNP -1
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 96
Reform 279
Con 66
Lib Dem 83
Green 38
SNP 43
Lab -22Reform +110Con -125Lib Dem +2Green +26SNP -1

Polling Tracker

1955polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
18
24
28
18
London· 75
26
7
16
18
5
North West· 73
9
47
5
East of England· 61
13
32
7
7
South West· 58
11
15
25
4
Scotland· 57
4
6
4
43
West Midlands· 57
6
38
5
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
5
36
5
East Midlands· 47
40
Wales· 32
20
7
North East· 27
24
3

Latest Polls

1955 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Ref
Lab
LD
Con
Grn
13 Jul
YouGov
2334
24
19
13
19
15
10 Jul
Opinium
2050
24
19
12
18
16
9 Jul
Find Out Now
2076
23
18
13
20
16
8 Jul
Find Out Now
2076
23
18
13
20
16
6 Jul
More in Common
2119
27
21
11
22
10

Model updates

14 Jul, 14:13
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1955 polls processed.
14 Jul, 11:59
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1955 polls processed.
14 Jul, 08:27
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1954 polls processed.
14 Jul, 03:33
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1954 polls processed.
13 Jul, 19:48
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1954 polls processed.