The Forecast
Local elections — May 7
Three scenarios136 English councils · Mild / Central / Severe scenarios · Interactive sliders
Scottish Parliament — May 7
73 constituency MSPs + 56 regional list = 129 total · Mixed-member proportional
Senedd — May 7
Expanded 96-seat Senedd · 16 six-member constituencies · Closed-list PR
Scenario explorer
Four scenarios show how the result changes under different assumptions about turnout and tactical voting. These are bracketed possibilities, not probability-weighted forecasts.
632 Constituencies
England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.
Model Waterfall
How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.
Polling Tracker
549polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average
Regional breakdown
Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.