UK Election Forecaster

If the Election Were Held Today

Updated 1 day ago·Reform-7vs yesterday

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
257
−154 vs 2024
145375
Reform
177
+172 vs 2024
48308
Con
78
−43 vs 2024
18166
Lib Dem
74
+2 vs 2024
5389
SNP
18
+9 vs 2024
044
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
314
Green
8
+4 vs 2024
414

Reform is very likely the largest party (~29%); the contest is whether it reaches an overall majority.

Lab 257
Reform 177
Con 78
Lib Dem 74
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 454
Reform 5
Con 110
Lib Dem 52
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 228
Reform 206
Con 75
Lib Dem 78
Green 8
SNP 25
Lab -226Reform +201Con -35Lib Dem +26Green +4SNP +25
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 266
Reform 68
Con 181
Lib Dem 74
Green 6
SNP 23
Lab +38Reform -138Con +106Lib Dem -4Green -2SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 251
Reform 177
Con 71
Lib Dem 78
Green 7
SNP 23
Lab -15Reform +109Con -110Lib Dem +4Green +1

Polling Tracker

2002polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
27
14
28
20
London· 75
52
6
11
North West· 73
35
26
East of England· 61
22
23
7
8
South West· 58
19
6
23
8
Scotland· 57
23
6
5
23
West Midlands· 57
14
29
6
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
17
27
4
East Midlands· 47
16
27
Wales· 32
17
7
6
North East· 27
9
16
2

Latest Polls

2002 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
24 Aug
Deltapoll
2022
30
27
20
8
8
24 Aug
YouGov
2380
22
23
20
13
13
23 Aug
More in Common
3140
27
23
22
10
9
19 Aug
Find Out Now
2287
23
23
18
11
14
18 Aug
Survation
2013
26
26
18
10
10

Model updates

27 Aug, 09:49
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2002 polls processed.
26 Aug, 20:03
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2002 polls processed.
26 Aug, 13:16
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2002 polls processed.
26 Aug, 11:39
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2002 polls processed.
26 Aug, 07:08
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2001 polls processed.