Salford
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 10 of 21 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 49Proj: 5-44
Conservative
Now: 7Proj: 1-6
Lib Dem
Now: 2Proj: 1-1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 45+45
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 3+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.4%
Labour
19.9%
Green
17.3%
Conservative
11.5%
Lib Dem
8.5%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge