Rugby
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (8/14 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 15Proj: 4-11
Conservative
Now: 17Proj: 2-15
Lib Dem
Now: 10Proj: 2-8
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 33+33
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.2%
Labour
18.8%
Conservative
16.7%
Green
11.2%
Lib Dem
10.7%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge