Newcastle-under-Lyme
Shire District· West Midlands· All seats up· 44 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 44 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 17Proj: 5-12
Conservative
Now: 25Proj: 1-24
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 32+31
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
38.4%
Labour
24.8%
Conservative
16.7%
Green
10.2%
Lib Dem
2.3%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge