Manchester
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 96 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 14 of 32 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 87Proj: 9-78
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Lib Dem
Now: 4Proj: 8+4
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 62+62
Green
Now: 3Proj: 14+11
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 0-2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.2%
Green
20.0%
Labour
18.2%
Lib Dem
11.4%
Conservative
11.2%
Ind/Other
8.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge