Lincoln
Shire District· East Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 33 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 6 of 11 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 22Proj: 4-18
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 2-3
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 2-4
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 24+24
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.1%
Labour
19.7%
Conservative
15.1%
Green
14.1%
Lib Dem
10.7%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge