Leeds
Metropolitan Borough· Yorkshire and The Humber· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 99 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 12 of 33 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 60Proj: 13-47
Conservative
Now: 14Proj: 8-6
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 7+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 57+57
Green
Now: 6Proj: 14+8
Other/Ind
Now: 13Proj: 0-13
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
30.4%
Labour
19.1%
Green
18.0%
Conservative
13.8%
Lib Dem
11.1%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge