East Surrey
Unitary Authority· All seats up· 72 total seats
Control:NOC→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (27/72 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 37+37
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.8%
Labour
17.0%
Lib Dem
15.8%
Conservative
15.1%
Green
12.8%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge