Cheltenham
Shire District· South West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 40 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrats→NOC
Liberal Democrat projected to hold with 7 of 20 seats. Conservative maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 9+9
Lib Dem
Now: 36Proj: 16-20
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 7+7
Green
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Lib Dem
24.6%
Reform
20.5%
Conservative
20.3%
Green
15.0%
Labour
11.9%
Ind/Other
7.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest